Patrick Flanary: Experts have been warning of an extraordinary Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 25 named storms predicted. And really, at any point, any one of those could potentially hit our region. Eve Zuckoff today brings us details about how local emergency planners are prepping for the big one in our second installment of a three part series about hurricanes and preparing for them. Eve, thanks for being with us.
Eve Zuckoff: Thanks for having me, Patrick.
Patrick Flanary: In the latest installment of this series, Eve, you spoke to a climate scientist to describe what the worst case scenario storm looks like for this region. That was last week, and she said it was any storm that hits just west of you, because that's where it puts you on the worst side of the storm as far as wind goes and waves go. I'm wondering now how did emergency planners answer the same question?
Eve Zuckoff: You know, every person I've talked to has had a different answer. When I asked a meteorologist this week, he said the power of the 1938 New England hurricane, where sections of Falmouth and New Bedford were eight feet underwater, taking the path of Hurricane Bob in 1991 is a really terrifying scenario. Now you have to remember, if those same storms hit today, sea level rise from climate change would make the storm surge almost a foot higher, so that would mean more flooding further inland. So that's one way to answer the question. But when I asked Barnstable County's emergency preparedness director Chip Reilly, he said his worst case scenario storm is all about the timing.
"A Category 3 hurricane hitting in August on a Saturday would be the worst case scenario. It's changeover day. So people coming, people going with major, major impacts across the board," he said.
Patrick Flanary: Already we've we've seen streets flooded and beaches eroded. I mean, every time it rains there's floods on the Cape. So can you paint a picture of what a major storm is going to look like?
Eve Zuckoff: Well, I'll start by the water to talk about what it could look like. If a Category 3 storm hits us just right, beaches could lose 50ft to erosion. We could see seawalls ripped apart, thousands of boats torn from their moorings, and entire beach communities lost. Moving further inland, floodwaters could course through low-Lying areas, making roads impassable, putting homes 20ft underwater as they were in 1938. I'm kind of pulling a bunch of examples from the historical record here. And you can't underestimate the trees. We could see thousands coming down, which, at the height of summer, when trees are full of heavy, wet leaves, could lead to historic damage and cut off power for weeks on end. And that's, of course, where you have to start worrying more and more about loss of life.
Patrick Flanary: And I want to remind listeners we're talking, of course, about a worst case scenario. We're not here to scare you. We're here to inform you. And that's what Eve Zuckoff has been doing so well over the last few weeks. This is part two of that. And Eve, really I can imagine people right now crossing the Bourne or the Sagamore Bridge going, 'well, what about the bridges, you know? They are the only way to get out of here in a storm.' And, you spoke to the people who know best. At what point are those at risk?
Eve Zuckoff: Well, generally, when wind speeds reach 75mph, that's when the bridges are shut down. The official decision to close them, to traffic is made by the Army Corps of Engineers. They control the bridges, but they collaborate with the state police, governor's office, the towns, state and county emergency managers. Chip Reilly again explained how this group makes that difficult call to take away this lifeline to the region, as they did during Hurricane Bob.
"What they worry about is a tractor trailer truck going sideways and flipping over and then tying up the bridge. And then where do we stand? So it's more about the impact the wind has on vehicles than the structural integrity of the bridges," he said.
Patrick Flanary: So as we look at emergency planning and preparation today, compared with these historic storms, is there an upside we should be looking at?
Eve Zuckoff: Well, the good news is that it's really unlikely that a major hurricane could hit us without warning, thanks to all the advances in computer modeling. So if a major storm is coming up the coast and reputable sources like the National Weather Service are warning of a scary situation, visitors to the region can rethink their plans to come, or they can cut their vacation short. And Cape Cod meteorologist Phil Burt said those in low lying areas can consider evacuating.
"You're talking about the south side of the Cape, Chatham, Hyannisport, over to Hyannis and then down to Woods Hole and then up into Buzzards Bay. Those areas that have historically been subject to inundation from storm surge, from a hurricane, those are the areas that really are supposed to evacuate," he said.
Eve Zuckoff: And we do have an evacuation plan, again, for this worst case scenario storm that involves gas refills and tow trucks stationed on the highways to help people safely and slowly get off Cape.
Patrick Flanary: All right. So that would rely on people, especially the most vulnerable people, heeding early warnings and leaving the region well before a hurricane were to strike.
Eve Zuckoff: Yes. Right. And it's not a perfect plan because it's limited by our geography. The state says the goal is to evacuate people at least 12 hours before hurricane force winds begin. The worst case scenario is that it may take up to 34 hours for all evacuating drivers to leave Cape Cod, and Chip Riley said he can totally imagine someone leaving Provincetown, for example, and sitting in traffic for the bulk of that before getting over the bridge. And that's if you're lucky. Say you try to evacuate and you get stuck in gridlock while the winds really pick up and those bridges need to be closed. In that case, emergency managers would begin diverting people off the roads, getting them and their pets, for what it's worth, into emergency shelters at Joint Base Cape Cod and in local towns. So the takeaway is actually that evacuation is probably not going to be the answer for a lot of people in a worst case scenario storm. Unless you have plenty of time to get away, for most people, the best bet is to remain where you are, with, at minimum, a 72-hour stash of bottled water, canned food, cash, flashlights, and the other essentials that people should be stocking up on now before an emergency.
Patrick Flanary: It is very important to go ahead and do that now while things are relatively calm. That is CAI's Eve Zuckoff. You can get a full list of what to have at home by going to Ready.gov. That's Ready.gov. Eve, thanks so much.
Eve Zuckoff: Thank you Patrick.
Patrick Flanary: And do tune in next Thursday we'll have the third and final installment from Eve's Hurricane series. She'll bring us a way to measure the long term economic risks of a worst case scenario storm.
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Learn more about hurricane preparedness in this 2018 series, "Are We Ready?"
