LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the U.S. economy has pulled off something impressive.
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JANET YELLEN: It really has been amazing to be able to get inflation down as meaningfully as we have. And I think this is what most people would call a soft landing.
FADEL: Soft landing - what does that mean? Is it even the right term? Amanda Aronczyk from NPR's Planet Money would like to quibble.
AMANDA ARONCZYK, BYLINE: The term soft landing is being tossed around in economic circles lately, and that's because policies aimed at bringing down inflation have historically brought down the whole economy. So there is this elusive dream of lowering inflation without slowing the economy - that the airplane - or in this case, the economy at large - could make a smooth and controlled touchdown with zero troubles. But that term doesn't seem quite right. Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm KPMG US, says that the public doesn't get what the economist is trying to say.
DIANE SWONK: No, they don't.
ARONCZYK: Are you sure? Now, I hear soft landing - I'm like, I feel like I get it. Do I not get it?
SWONK: (Laughter) Well, you know, the thing that people don't get is it just means you've avoided a full-blown recession.
ARONCZYK: So, yes, while Diane says we have so far avoided that full-blown recession, it doesn't mean the last two years have been without pain.
SWONK: You can have an increase in unemployment, which we've already had, actually. You can have certain sectors that go into recession, like we saw in the housing market.
ARONCZYK: The airplane metaphor doesn't quite make sense because if the pilot lost a wing and a couple of passengers, no one would call that a soft landing.
SWONK: It sounds nice and cushy. But in reality, it's a little bumpier and a little more turbulent than I think people think. I think that gets lost in translation.
ARONCZYK: Like, it doesn't answer soft for whom? Some people can't help but wonder. Like, my industry has been struggling. My company laid off a bunch of people. If this is a soft landing, why doesn't it feel soft?
So if you could come up with a different term and replace soft landing, what would you replace it with?
SWONK: Oh, I don't know that I have a replacement for it. You know, soft landing is a little bit too benign.
ARONCZYK: So I've got a couple suggestions - maybe mini-bust...
SWONK: Mini-bust, yeah (laughter).
ARONCZYK: ...A mini-bust. OK, I'm going to try one more - quasi recession.
SWONK: Oh, no. You know, they call them - in Europe, they're calling them technical recessions 'cause it's not...
ARONCZYK: Oh, a technical recession.
SWONK: But when you hear technical recession, people go, well, what is that?
ARONCZYK: Right. It makes it sound like technically we're in a recession, which is not the case, so it makes even less sense. Regardless, you will still probably hear experts saying over the next few months that we achieved a soft landing, which is great. But maybe now you'll take a moment to acknowledge the damage to the plane before it touched down on the runway.
Amanda Aronczyk, NPR News.
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