JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed by the Israeli military in Gaza on Wednesday. Sinwar, a pivotal figure behind Hamas' October 7 attack, rose to become the group's top leader in July. To explain the larger implications of his death for Hamas, the region and the war with Israel, we're joined now by Daniel Byman. He's a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center For Strategic and International Studies, which is a foreign policy think tank. Daniel, welcome.
DANIEL BYMAN: Thank you for having me.
SUMMERS: Daniel, if you can, just start off by telling us - do you believe that Sinwar's death could be a turning point in this war?
BYMAN: For Israelis, it's a win. They've been promoting the idea that he's a dead man walking since the war's inception, and Israeli leaders can say to their own people that we now have killed the key architect of October 7. For Hamas, he was a hard-liner. And if he's replaced by someone who is more pragmatic or moderate, that could also lead Hamas to be more likely to compromise. But in the past, the killings of major leaders have not led to progress on the cease-fire, and both sides right now seem pretty dug in.
SUMMERS: In just three months, two of the top leaders of Hamas have been killed. From your perspective, what do these deaths mean for the viability of Hamas and its ability to function moving forward?
BYMAN: Hamas has been hit very hard. It's not only lost numerous senior leaders, but the constant Israeli campaign has made it much harder for those remaining leaders to communicate with each other. If they use their phone, email or have meetings, they're at risk that Israeli intelligence will find out where they are and kill them. Israel has also devastated much of Hamas' rank-and-file.
All that said, the influence of Hamas is relative to other actors, and no other Palestinian actor has risen in Gaza that can challenge Hamas. And Hamas has enough power remaining, enough people remaining, where it's going to remain strong in Gaza despite Israeli efforts.
SUMMERS: Now I'll just remind folks that Israel also killed Hezbollah's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, just a few weeks ago. What these groups have in common is that they're supported by Iran, which has long used these groups as a proxy in the region. How do these assassinations, taken together, change Iran's influence?
BYMAN: So that's a blow to Iran's influence. It's a blow to Iran's capabilities. At the same time, the Israeli campaign and the incredible unpopularity of the Israeli campaign around the world is a victory for Iran. Iran has long said Israel is illegitimate, that Israel is the cause of the region's problems, and many people in the world are more likely to share that now, after a year of war.
SUMMERS: Is there anyone that you can see who's poised to take the lead within Hamas, with credibility, on both cease-fire and on hostage deals?
BYMAN: Right now, it's unclear who's going to be the next leader of Hamas. Israel has taken out much of the leadership, which makes it hard to determine what the natural succession is. So it's going to be a real challenge for Hamas to be able to have a leader who has credibility within the movement and, from there, have the credibility to be able to make major concessions and otherwise try to move beyond the current conflict.
SUMMERS: Will Netanyahu see this as an opportunity to seek a deal for a cease-fire and release the hostages or a sign that he can achieve his goal of a total military victory in Gaza, as his hard-line coalition partners are pushing him to do?
BYMAN: Making a big leap such as a cease-fire that would risk his political coalition - that leaves an uncertain question about domestic investigations into the October 7 attack within Israel. That would be a big jump. And so far, at least, he's been very reluctant to make that.
SUMMERS: That was Daniel Byman, professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Daniel, thank you.
BYMAN: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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