ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Moldova and Georgia are both countries caught in a tug-of-war - on one side, Russia; on the other, the Western powers of NATO and the European Union. These Eastern European countries have elections just one week apart. Moldova voted last weekend. Georgia votes this weekend. And so we've called back elections analyst Tamara Sartania in Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, to talk about what's at stake in this struggle for power. Good to have you with us again.
TAMARA SARTANIA: Thank you. Thank you for inviting me to the show.
SHAPIRO: Let's start with Moldova, which I know is not your home country, but an election happened there just last weekend. People voted to put their country on a path to EU membership by just the slimmest of margins. How do you interpret those results?
SARTANIA: Yes, Moldova had its presidential election and also a referendum. And the referendum asked the questions about whether the country wanted to put in the constitution that it wants to join the European Union. It was the slightest victory for the yes camp - around 11,000 voters.
Moldova itself is a very divided country when it comes to the population. So what helped Moldova a lot is migrant voters, those who were voting from United States and Canada and other European countries. Those votes came in later compared to the votes that were calculated earlier, and they were the ones that made this victory possible for Moldova.
SHAPIRO: And it's believed that those expat votes were so crucial because in Moldova, like in Georgia, there has been disinformation. There has been intimidation, harassment, even bribery, which voters outside of the country are less subject to.
SARTANIA: That is very true, especially when it comes to Georgia. In case of Moldova, there was a large scale interference from Russia, the disinformation campaign that was sort of orchestrated from Russia through briberies, et cetera, et cetera. What makes Georgia a little bit different from case of Moldova is that, in our case, disinformation is coming not only from Russia, but actually from the high-ranking officials of Georgia itself. So we have the government officials spreading disinformation against the European Union and the West in general.
SHAPIRO: Just so people understand - the Georgian Dream party is in power right now. It is anti-Western, aligned with Russia. And so you're saying the disinformation doesn't only come from Russia, it comes from Georgia's elected leaders.
SARTANIA: Yes, that is very true. And just so that the audience knows - for many years, Georgian Dream portrayed itself as a pro-Western party that was seeking Georgia's integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures. However, that is not so anymore, and our relations with the West are at the lowest point possible.
SHAPIRO: The stakes in this weekend's elections in Georgia are so high. Here's how you described it when we spoke with you over the summer.
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SARTANIA: It's a referendum between, will Georgia continue to develop as a democratic country, or will we slide back to a Soviet-style dictatorship, so to say.
SHAPIRO: And so how is it looking right now?
SARTANIA: These words still hold true. These elections are indeed being portrayed as elections that will decide the country's orientation for the foreseeable future, whether we're going to become member of the European Union or are we going to move closer to Russia. And that's what the opposition is mainly campaigning on, while the Georgian Dream is campaigning on the fears and emotions of people, peace versus war and sort of LGBT propaganda versus traditional family values.
SHAPIRO: This obviously has huge implications for people who live in Moldova and Georgia, but do you think there are also broader stakes for the rest of the world in how these votes go?
SARTANIA: I do think there are broader stakes because Russia is testing waters of how it can return countries in its orbit, and Georgia might be a good case. You know, for Russia, it's a lesson learned that you don't need to conquer a state, a country through war. You can just help elect the government that favors closer relations with Russia and keeps them in power forever. And that's how you guarantee the country staying on your orbit forever.
SHAPIRO: Oh, I see. So you're saying Ukraine is one model. You actually wage war, invade, and it costs a lot of money and creates chaos. It might be much simpler just to pull a country into your gravitational orbit without a ground invasion.
SARTANIA: And sort of use propaganda and government to return the country to your orbit and further away from the West, which Russia perceives as its No. 1 enemy.
SHAPIRO: Elections analyst Tamara Sartania, speaking with us from Tbilisi, Georgia, where elections take place this weekend. Thank you so much.
SARTANIA: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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