The race for the 5th Congressional District in western Connecticut has once again captured the most attention of any federal matchup in the state.
The district is competitive because it’s home to a larger share of independent voters, experts say.
Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes and Republican challenger George Logan are locked in a heated rematch after she narrowly defeated him in 2022.
Public polling indicates the potential for another close race. A recent poll showed Hayes with a three-point lead, but within the poll's margin of error. But Democrats have consistently won the 5th District since 2006 and Hayes has held the seat since 2018.
The suburbs in the 5th District have higher percentages of independents and voters with college education. But those areas are starting to shift more demographically, culturally and politically. That’s according to Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University.
“I think what has made this ... a more competitive district, but one controlled year in and year out by Democrats, nevertheless, is because the suburbs are changing," McLean said. "They’re changing in Connecticut. They’re changing nationwide.”
McLean said Republicans in Connecticut have struggled a bit more with tapping into the independent swing vote over the past few cycles. But he said both the Hayes and Logan campaigns will need to focus on direct voter mobilization as Election Day approaches.
