A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Polls show that many Americans are worried about what might happen after next week's election. More than three dozen military experts joined state and local officials at the University of Pennsylvania to conduct tabletop simulations of possible violence or civil unrest surrounding the election and the peaceful transition of power. They released a report of their key takeaways. Our colleague Michel Martin spoke with one of the authors of the report, retired General Joseph Votel. He's a former top general with the U.S. Central Command and Special Operations Command, which means he's helped oversee military operations in some of the world's most volatile areas.
MICHEL MARTIN, BYLINE: So before we get into some of the details of the exercises and the recommendations of the report, I just want to start with one of the key conclusions that jumps out to me, which is that it says this - civil unrest on Election Day and in the following days leading up to the inauguration is a quote "realistic, if not likely, possibility." What led to that conclusion?
JOSEPH VOTEL: I think one of the things that heavily influence us as we look at this was the prevalence of disinformation in the environment today could very rapidly accelerate people's opinions, people's views on what is happening with the election and I think could accelerate the movement towards civil unrest.
MARTIN: So the exercise gave out two scenarios, both based in Pennsylvania. So here's the first one - allegations of voter fraud in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, resulting in street protests that spiral out of control. Local election workers need to regain control by closing the polls so Pennsylvania is delayed in certifying its election results. What are the most immediate dangers in this scenario?
VOTEL: I think what our tabletop exercise identified was that federal, state and local law enforcement needs to examine their preparation for civil unrest during and in the aftermath of election. There could be a lack of response. There could be exaggerated responses. There could be ineffective responses. It also means that we have to take measures to ensure the physical safety of polls. That has to take a high priority, obviously, before and during the elections.
MARTIN: The second exercise simulated a scenario in which a newly elected president issues illegal orders for the Pennsylvania National Guard to quell protests in Philadelphia. The goal here was to identify vulnerabilities in the military chain of command and to develop strategies to make sure that the military responses are in line with democratic values. What did the report conclude about how the military could be misused in this scenario? People would want to know, are there safeguards in place to prevent that from happening?
VOTEL: What our tabletop exercise identified is that the use of the Insurrection Act could enable a president to issue orders that would supersede those of a governor, especially regarding the deployment of National Guard. So that's a vulnerability. Second of all the immunity decision that was, you know, reached here a couple of months ago by the Supreme Court of the United States does create some legal ambiguity in the military chain of command, which could allow the issue of illegal orders without personal legal risk. I think the exercise also identified the U.S. military is trained to disobey patently illegal orders, but more training is likely needed to help active-duty personnel recognize and reject illegal orders.
One of the things that was identified in exercise was that the lines between state and federal authority about quelling civil unrest are not abundantly clear. What does give me confidence in all of this is, just as a former military officer, I do know that the military is an organization that does act deliberately. So military leaders have legal advisers. They will seek advice. They will think through the consequences of this. And our hope is that people who read the report will pay attention to this. This will be a prompter for them to begin to think through some of the difficult choices that they may be confronted with.
MARTIN: So before I let you go, I want to go back to the first question I asked you, the conclusion that civil unrest on Election Day and the days following is a realistic, if not likely, possibility. I found that very unsettling. Did you?
VOTEL: Well, certainly. I think we all do. But I think we have to recognize the times that we are in, and that's part of the reason why we undertook the exercise. There could be a reasonable expectation that some of these things might happen.
MARTÍNEZ: That was retired General Joseph Votel speaking with our colleague Michel Martin. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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