MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Access to abortion is on the ballot in 10 states today. The results could end up dramatically expanding access to abortion and influencing the presidential and congressional elections on the ballot. NPR's Elissa Nadworny is with us now to talk about what she will be watching for as the votes get counted. Good morning, Elissa.
ELISSA NADWORNY, BYLINE: Good morning.
MARTIN: So where are the places where abortion ballot initiatives have a lot of support?
NADWORNY: Well, in five states - Montana, Colorado, Nevada, New York and Maryland - abortion is already protected. But they're going to vote on whether to amend their state constitutions to essentially recognize and protect the right to an abortion. In Colorado, if the measure passes, it would also allow state funds to be used to provide abortion coverage.
MARTIN: And what about the states where if they vote to amend the state constitution, it would change restrictions that have been put into place or dramatically change abortion access?
NADWORNY: Yeah, well, the three places that I'm watching really closely are Florida, Missouri and Arizona. So Florida is a place that just recently, in May of this year, enacted a six-week ban on abortion. And voters there are going to weigh in on protecting abortion through the point of fetal viability, which is considered to be around the 24th week in a pregnancy. So that's a big jump, from six weeks to 24. Now, there is a very high bar in Florida for this to pass. Sixty percent of voters will have to approve the amendment, and we haven't seen an abortion-related ballot measure pass with that high of a threshold in any other state.
MARTIN: OK, certainly something to watch there. What about Arizona and Missouri, though?
NADWORNY: So if the proposed amendments in Arizona and Missouri pass, both would legalize abortion up to that point of viability. Both states currently have more restrictive laws. So Arizona law bans abortion after 15 weeks and includes some exemptions in cases of medical emergencies. But in Missouri, nearly every abortion has been illegal since June 2022, with the exception of medical emergencies. And in both places, there has been a considerable amount of outside money in support of passing these ballot initiatives. So in Missouri, for instance, the group leading the ballot campaign received $23 million - that's about 75% of all their funds raised - from out-of-state donors. That's according to financial records reported to the Missouri Ethics Commission.
MARTIN: So now we've heard about the measures in eight states. What about the last two? What are they voting on?
NADWORNY: Well, South Dakota's a little bit different from the others. The proposed amendment there would allow abortions in the first trimester - or up to about 12 weeks - add more restrictions in the second and then prohibit abortions in the third trimester, with some exceptions. Now, some abortion rights groups say the proposed South Dakota amendment is too weak, so there hasn't been a lot of funding for it. And that's meant that the anti-abortion group campaigning to defeat the ballot initiative has actually raised more money. Then, in Nebraska, there are two competing ballot measures. One would allow abortion until viability. The other would bar abortion, in most cases, after 12 weeks, so that's about what's in line with the current state law. Now, in Nebraska, whichever gets the most votes goes into the state constitution.
MARTIN: So Elissa, this isn't the first time that voters have been asked about abortion at the ballot box. What do we know from past elections? Is there some way in which history might be our guide here?
NADWORNY: Yeah, so since the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs in 2022, voters in six states have weighed in on constitutional amendments on abortion. Some initiatives sought to add protections, like in Ohio. Others asked voters to restrict abortion, like in Kansas and Kentucky. And in all six of those states, Michel, voters chose access to abortion each time.
MARTIN: OK, so certainly a lot to keep track of here. Elissa Nadworny, thank you so much.
NADWORNY: You bet. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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