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You've heard of swing states. Here are 7 swing counties to watch

Residents cast in-person absentee ballots at a polling place set up at the Warner Park recreation center on October 30, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin.
Scott Olson
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Getty Images
Residents cast in-person absentee ballots at a polling place set up at the Warner Park recreation center on October 30, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin.

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Here seven counties to watch — one in each swing state — that might give some idea how the race is going and why one candidate or the other won:

1. Montgomery County, Pa.: This wealthy and highly educated Philadelphia suburb is crucial to Democrats’ chances in the state. Biden netted 40,000 more votes here than Hillary Clinton in 2016, a third of the entire statewide vote shift in his favor.

2. Dane County, Wisc.: This heavily Democratic county has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. It accounted for 1-in-6 Democratic votes statewide in 2020, but 80% of the total vote shift in Biden's favor.

3. Wayne County, Mich.: It's home to Detroit and Dearborn, and may tell the story of whether Vice President Harris was able to turn out Black voters and how much the war in Gaza was a factor. Wayne is home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans anywhere in the country.

4. Henderson County, N.C.: This is one of the more populous Trump-won counties affected by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina. Turnout there will give some idea of how Trump’s vote is affected.

5. Gwinnett County, Ga.: It has seen a population boom in the past decade, is the most populous suburban county in the state and is now majority non-white. It flipped in 2016 from Republican to Democrat and went by an even wider margin for Biden in 2020.

6. Maricopa County, Ariz.: Biden won Arizona by just over 10,000 votes, a 100,000-vote swing from 2016. And 90% of that came from Maricopa, home to Phoenix.

7. Clark County, Nev.: Almost 70% of all the state's votes come from this county, home to Las Vegas. It will tell us whether Trump’s appeals on the economy to working-class Latino voters worked. It's home to a significant share of Asian American and Black voters Harris also needs to help her win.

Click here to read about even more swing counties.

Copyright 2024 NPR

Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor/correspondent. Based in Washington, D.C., his work appears on air and online delivering analysis of the political climate in Washington and campaigns. He also helps edit political coverage.

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