ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
We're still getting details about the demographic breakdown behind last night's results, and it seems like Republicans made gains with Latino voters - a group that has reliably favored Democrats. NPR's Ximena Bustillo has been looking into the polling data on this, and she's on the line from Phoenix. Hi there.
XIMENA BUSTILLO, BYLINE: Hey there.
SHAPIRO: How did Trump perform among Latino voters compared to his past runs?
BUSTILLO: Well, early exit polling data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris did have success broadly among Latino voters, but former President Trump made significant gains in closing those margins, and it's looking like Harris won Latino voters by less than even President Biden did in 2020. One big example here is the results out of Miami-Dade County in Florida. Florida has, in recent elections, been reliably red as a state. But Miami-Dade County, which is also the county with the highest Latino population in the country, voted for Biden in 2020. In the past, it has also went - gone for Democrats - Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama twice, John Kerry. I mean, it was reliably blue. Well, last night, it voted for Trump and by nearly 10 percentage points. That means that Republicans didn't just run up the margins here. They closed and flipped them.
SHAPIRO: That is so striking. Now, a county like Miami-Dade did not flip a state, but this shows that these individuals are voting in new ways. They're moving away from the Democratic Party. What has led to this Republican success with Latino voters?
BUSTILLO: Well, immigration and the economy were the messaging cornerstones of the Trump campaign, and these are two issues that resonated across the country. We have seen these trends split along gender, and Republicans use the messaging of providing safety for families and personal finance that resonates particularly with men and perhaps Latinos broadly. Based on some of these early numbers, it's looking like Trump held that male voter base, even among Latinos. Pew Research Center released a study in September that showed Harris was up with Latinos, but that enthusiasm for Harris as a candidate was not a top reason for voting for her, and almost nearly 85% emphasized that the economy was the top issue of all. Trump generally lost Latino voters, remember, but potentially was able to get his message to reach new groups.
SHAPIRO: Now, I mentioned that you're in Arizona. That's a swing state on the border, where about 20% of the electorate is Latino. What did voters there tell you their top issue was?
BUSTILLO: Latinos here - throughout the country and here, specifically, in Arizona - throughout the year have told me that they were concerned about the border and also the economy. You know, that matches a lot of national trends. Some raised concerns over border security after Arizona became one of the busiest sectors of the U.S.-Mexico border at the very start of the year, and utility, housing and food and gas prices were concerns, of course. Results are still trickling in here. As we know, it takes longer to get some of the results from these Western states. But so far, ballots that have been counted have been in favor of both Trump and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego. He would be Arizona's first Latino senator should he win over GOP candidate Kari Lake.
SHAPIRO: Interesting. So big picture, what do all of these trends tell us about the future of Latino voting bloc?
BUSTILLO: Well, it reinforces what we have always said. Latinos are not a monolith. No group is. Pew Research estimates that, at the start of the year, Latinos would have made up about 50% of the increase of newly eligible voters this cycle. And there have been so many factors that can determine why someone ultimately votes the way that they do. The numbers are still coming in, and it will be several weeks before we can truly analyze those trends.
SHAPIRO: NPR's Ximena Bustillo in Phoenix, thank you.
BUSTILLO: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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