While New Hampshire Democrats won the federal races in this week’s elections, Republicans claimed victory nearly everywhere else on the ballot: solidifying their control over the state House of Representatives, keeping their 4-1 edge at the Executive Council table, and appearing to oust the long-serving Democratic leader of the state Senate on their way to claiming a supermajority in that chamber.
The results reflect a rightward shift among the electorate across the state in 2024 – in rural areas as well as in cities, including Manchester. The Republican gains also mean Gov.-elect Kelly Ayotte will enter the corner office with sizable GOP majorities that could help her achieve conservative policy goals in the early days of her administration.
“It’s a great vote of confidence by the people of this state that Republicans are getting the job done,” state Republican Party Chairman Chris Ager said at Ayotte’s election night victory party in Salem.
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In the New Hampshire Senate, Republicans were poised to oust two incumbent Democrats. While final results had not yet been called by Wednesday afternoon, Victoria Sullivan appeared close to defeating Senate Minority Leader Donna Soucy of Manchester, and Merrimack Rep. Tim McGough was on the verge of beating Amherst Sen. Shannon Chandley. Republicans also kept the 14 seats they already held, meaning the party will likely hold a 16-8 supermajority in the next legislative session.
While final numbers were still trickling in Wednesday, Republicans also gained ground in the 400-member House of Representative, running up their majority to at least 222 seats. GOP House leaders said their wider margin in that chamber next year will make it easier for them to work closely with Ayotte.
“We are certainly optimistic about being able to communicate and collaborate with the next governor,” said Ross Berry who is vice chairman of the Committee to Elect House Republicans, and won election to a House seat in Weare.
A promise to ‘perform’
Ayotte’s stated role model — Gov. Chris Sununu, who she praised as “the 603 guy” after her win Tuesday — had a mixed record when it came to collaborating with lawmakers in his four terms. After some reversals early in his administration, Sununu mostly chose to remain at arm’s length from the Legislature's day-to-day policy work.
But what exactly Ayotte hopes to achieve on the policy front remains unclear. Besides her repeated promises to oppose any new taxes and preserve the state’s current abortion limits, Ayotte made few specific commitments on the campaign trail. Instead, she stressed she’d keep the state on “the Sununu Path” which she defined as “safe, prosperous and free.”
In her victory speech Tuesday, Ayotte ticked through a few priorities: housing, mental health, education, and her desire to make sure New Hampshire remains a good place to raise a family.
She also emphasized that she intends to involve lawmakers outside her own party.
“I want to work on a bipartisan basis to address our challenges, and I want to make sure I represent everyone,” Ayotte said.
But for top Republicans, Tuesday’s election was proof that New Hampshire voters trust the GOP far more than Democrats — at least on the local level.
“Now we have to perform, continue to perform,” Ager said.
State budget challenges loom
The next state budget will be one test of the new Republican majorities. The pending expiration of millions in federal relief money means lawmakers will have to either find new revenue sources to maintain spending levels, or make potentially deep cuts across agencies and programs.
Education policy is another area where Republicans could get their way on issues, such as parental rights and school choice. Ayotte and GOP legislative leaders both want to expand the state’s voucher-like school choice program — a particular favorite of Sununu’s, as well.
Social issues — including policies that touch transgender rights and abortion policy — will also certainly be debated in the coming legislative session. Ayotte and House Majority Leader Jason Osborne have both said they have no interest in going any further to limit abortion access beyond current law, which restricts most abortions in the state after 24 weeks. Ayotte has promised to veto any bill that would tighten that. But more Republicans in Concord mean some policies that Ayotte claims to oppose could gain fresh traction.
Tuesday’s results mean the New Hampshire Executive Council will retain its 4-1 GOP edge, as incumbents held their seats with safe margins and Republican John Stephen, the former state health commissioner, was poised to succeed outgoing Councilor Ted Gatsas. The majority on the council means Ayotte will have help as she works to secure councilors’ approval in filling key state posts, including a possible vacancy on the New Hampshire Supreme Court.
The rightward lurch of the electorate Tuesday extended to the top of the ticket, where Donald Trump lost to Kamala Harris but improved on his performances in 2016 and 2020, both in terms of total votes won and share of the electorate.
Republicans were quick to claim Tuesday’s gains were something they fully expected, but that outcome was a surprise for many Democrats, who hoped to retake the House and pick up seats in the Senate.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national group that targets State House races, spent more than a million dollars here in hopes of flipping the Legislature. Democrats here ran as a team, from the Harris-Walz ticket on down to state rep races. Republicans said their approach targeted local voter concerns.
“It was not a Republican, national-branded campaign; it was very local,” Ager said.
