Republicans Tuesday picked up more seats in the Vermont Legislature than they have in more than a decade and dislodged the Democratic/Progressive supermajority that Gov. Phil Scott blames for a “crisis of affordability.”
Republicans’ best hope to undo Democrats’ veto-proof majority was in the Senate, where a well-funded roster of capable candidates provided opportunities for pickups in Caledonia County, Orleans County, Grand Isle County and even deep-blue Chittenden.
They notched victories in all those races, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s office, and were in position late Tuesday to pick up surprise wins in Addison and Orange counties as well.
That means Republicans will have at least 11 members in the state Senate next year - more than they’ve had since 2002 and enough to prevent Democrats from unilaterally overriding whatever vetoes Republican Gov. Phil Scott may issue.
Republican officials said late Tuesday that they believed the party would gain 17 seats in the House of Representatives, which would erase Democrats’ veto-proof majority in that chamber as well.
In an election night victory speech, Scott said the red wave, powered largely by voter disaffection over rising property taxes, will force Democrats to a bargaining table that they’ve been able to leave without consequence for the last four years.
"They voted for balance, and they voted for moderation,” Scott said. “They told us they can’t afford the direction we’ve been going, and they want lawmakers to set clear priorities. Focus on the needs of all working families, small business owners in communities large and small.”
Senate President Pro Tem Phil Baruth attended a somber election night event held by the Vermont Democratic Party in South Burlington. He said in an interview that his party will need to reckon with the results.
They voted for balance, and they voted for moderation.Gov. Phil Scott
“You listen to the voters. There’s a clear result tonight that was not in our favor, so we need to listen to that. We can’t walk away as though that didn’t happen,” Baruth said. “For me the key is the reality that the voters were dissatisfied. I think the tax issue was a big part of it, and the education finance piece, so we will need to sit down with the new Republican caucus and work on education finance together.”
Scott’s influence
Scott, who regularly polls as the most popular governor in the United States, faced little in the way of a reelection challenge this year. But he’s been campaigning long and hard for a return to partisan balance in a Democratically controlled Legislature that’s used its numbers to enact policies that Scott opposes. Those policies include a payroll tax to fund child care subsidies, and energy policies that attempt to speed the state’s transition away from fossil fuels.
Scott tried to focus voters’ attention on the alleged dangers of the Democratic supermajority in his State of the State Address in January.
“I know you have a supermajority,” Scott told lawmakers. “You’ve proven the final budget, and the growing burden of taxes, fees and other policy-driven costs, is in your hands.”
Since then, he’s used some of his weekly media briefings to convince the voting public that his worst fears have materialized. In May, he expressed deep fears as lawmakers prepared to go forth over his objections with bills related to property taxes and the renewable energy standard.
“Unfortunately, due to a lack of balance in the Legislature, [Democrats] don’t want to hear about the consequences, limitations or barriers when it comes to their initiatives,” Scott said in May.
After Democrats shattered a state record by overriding six gubernatorial vetoes in a single day in June, Scott’s rhetoric darkened.
“It seems as though they’re learning well from D.C.,” Scott said. “D.C. is dysfunctional. It’s all about partisan politics, and it’s all about leverage and who gets what and making sure that you have the majority. And they've learned well. It's turning into the same thing here in Vermont.”
That messaging resonated with many voters Tuesday. Diane Bapp lives in Barton Town and arrived at her polling station in Lake Region Union High School with her ballot in hand. Asked what brought her out to vote, she had a one-word answer.
“Taxes,” Bapp said.
The 68-year-old, who’s lived in Barton Town her entire life, said she’s worried young families will leave the area due to the high cost of living.
“I feel sorry for the other generation coming in, because it’s going to be hell for them,” Bapp said.
And she said her vote for Republican Orleans County Senate candidate Samuel Douglass was her attempt to help fix the problem.
“He’s going to bring things down,” she said.
Democratic House speaker defends record
House Speaker Jill Krowinski told Vermont Public last week that the supermajority isn’t the bogeyman Scott has portrayed it as.
“I think what Vermonters want to see are us working together across party lines to get things done,” she said.
She said members of the House have heard the same concerns from their constituents as the governor has: affordable housing, property taxes, health care and flood recovery. She said addressing the issue of property taxes, which went up by an average of 14% this year, will require a new kind of collaboration between the legislative and executive branches.
“I think leading up to this legislative session, the time between the election and when we come back in the building, it’s going to be really important for us to communicate early about how we can work together to solve these big challenges ahead of us,” she said. “We just have to. There’s too much at stake. We have to take action this session, and we’re going to have to do it together.”
I think what Vermonters want to see are us working together across party lines to get things done.House Speaker Jill Krowinski
Krowinski also defended Democratic policies that have had the effect of increasing tax obligations in Vermont. The payroll tax that Scott has railed so hard against, Krowinski said, has resulted in 1,000 new child care slots, 39 new child care centers and more than 250 new jobs in the sector.
“I hear about that when I knock on doors and people deeply appreciate it and talk about how it’s made a difference in their lives,” she said. “I think there’s a misconception across the state about the work that we have done, and some of that comes from the governor.”
Bankrolled by the governor
Scott dipped deep into his own campaign war chest this cycle to try to offset the institutional advantage that Democrats have had over Republicans for more than a decade.
The Vermont Democratic Party’s fundraising prowess has built an organizational framework that employs five full-time staff who engage in behind-the-scenes efforts – such as candidate recruitment, field organizing and targeted voter outreach – that are pivotal in down-ballot races for House and Senate.
Jim Dandeneau, executive director of the VDP, said the party’s budget for this year alone is about $700,000. Democrats have also gotten a lift from super PACs such as the Child Care Victory Fund and the Vermont Conservation Voters Action Fund, the latter of which spent nearly $200,000 to support down-ballot candidates in the last month alone.
The Vermont Republican Party’s state committee, meanwhile, had raised a grand total of $164,000 for this election cycle as of Nov. 1.
Scott used more than $450,000 from his own campaign account to support dozens of candidates, appearing alongside them in postcards and radio ads that he helped bankroll.
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