A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President-elect, Donald Trump is threatening a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. And an extra 10% tariff may be put on items from China.
ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:
According to Trump, those nations are not doing enough to stop undocumented migrants or fentanyl from crossing into the U.S. While arrests of migrants have been on the rise at the northern border, there are a fraction of those at the southern border, where apprehensions are at a four-year low.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR's Brian Mann covers the fentanyl crisis, joins us now to take a look at Trump's promise. Now, Brian, it's a social media post right now, not policy quite yet. But what does Donald Trump say he hopes to accomplish with this threat?
BRIAN MANN, BYLINE: Yeah, you're right, A. It's not clear Trump's going to follow through on this. He doesn't take office for a couple of months. A lot of negotiations are going to happen before then. What Trump said in social media posts Monday is that these countries aren't doing enough to solve what he describes as two of the biggest problems hitting the U.S. - illegal immigration and fentanyl, which is still killing tens of thousands of people every year. According to Trump, Canada, China and Mexico could collectively easily solve these problems. He added that once imposed, these tariffs would remain in place until drugs, including fentanyl, and illegal aliens - those are his words - stop this invasion of our country.
MARTÍNEZ: But could China and Mexico really just shut down fentanyl smuggling just like that?
MANN: Yeah. Experts I talked to say no. It's just not possible. Jonathan Caulkins, a drug policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University says fentanyl is just really easy to make and smuggle.
JONATHAN CAULKINS: Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to control fentanyl because it's so easy for the illegal supply chains to produce and distribute it.
MANN: Vanda Felbab-Brown is a drug policy expert at the Brookings Institution, and she agrees - what Trump is demanding here, it just isn't going to happen.
VANDA FELBAB-BROWN: That is an unachievable goal. No country will accomplish that.
MANN: What experts say is the best-case scenario is that Trump's threats here prompt negotiations that maybe lead to better cooperation on migrants and fentanyl with more realistic goals.
MARTÍNEZ: OK, I'm sure they're all going to be talking at some point. So how are these countries responding so far?
MANN: Well, you know, first, it's important to say, most fentanyl does enter the U.S. from Mexico, typically passing through official border crossings. Mexico's President, Claudia Sheinbaum responded by saying yesterday, fentanyl is primarily a U.S. problem, one that requires a health care and treatment response, she says, to reduce addiction. That's been Mexico's position for years. She also suggested U.S. tariffs linked to fentanyl could trigger a full-blown trade war.
One other concern I'm hearing from drug policy experts is that a trade fight could unravel what has been growing international cooperation targeting drug traffickers. Again, here's Vanda Felbab-Brown at Brookings.
FELBAB-BROWN: Various Chinese officials have told me the counternarcotics cooperation would not be able to survive an imposition of substantial tariffs.
MANN: So if this power move by Trump doesn't work, we could see China and Mexico backing away from intelligence-sharing and other cooperation with U.S. law enforcement. That could mean less pressure on these gangs that are smuggling fentanyl.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. Brian, you've been reporting that the fentanyl crisis has been easing in recent months with a lot fewer people dying. So what does Donald Trump say about that?
MANN: Well, Trump hasn't actually acknowledged that progress. Writing on social media, he said, we're still seeing drugs coming across the border, and I'm quoting here, "at levels never seen before." In fact, there's been a huge positive shift over the last 12 months. Fatal overdoses, including fentanyl, are dropping fast - about 16,000 fewer deaths. Most experts I talk to who credit better health care and treatment. And they worry that Trump's threat here of an international drug and trade war could be a distraction, pulling focus away from a public health response that appears to be helping.
MARTÍNEZ: That's NPR's addiction correspondent, Brian Mann. Brian, thanks.
MANN: Thank you, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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