MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
With the deposed Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, now exiled in Moscow, Syria's new leadership is still taking shape. That's in part because the rebels who toppled the regime are comprised of different groups. So now Russia, still heavily engaged in the war it launched on Ukraine, will also have to pay close attention to its interest in Syria and the broader Middle East.
To hear more about those interests, we've called Sergey Radchenko. He is a professor of history at Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, Italy. Good morning, professor.
SERGEY RADCHENKO: Morning.
MARTIN: So I'm going to ask you to remind us how or maybe why Syria and Russia became close allies to begin with.
RADCHENKO: So that's a long story. It's a Cold War story. Syria was an important Soviet ally in the Middle East from - indeed, from the early 1970s. The Soviets came to support the father of Bashar al-Assad, Hafez al-Assad, and basically stayed with the Syrians even through the end of the Cold War. And then later, Putin came in to rescue Bashar al-Assad in 2015, when his rule was very much under threat.
MARTIN: I was going to ask you about that because, you know, Syria has been in a civil war for more than a decade. What role has Russia played in this? Has it - are they offering material support, military support, intelligence?
RADCHENKO: Well, it was absolutely essential about 10 years ago, when Assad was on the brink of being overthrown. The Russians came in and supported Assad with their military force. The Wagner Group was there on the ground. Remember the Wagner Group, headed by nefarious Yevgeny Prigozhin? They played a role there in sustaining Assad. And then the Russians also maintained their facilities. They have a naval base at a place called Tartus and also an air base at a place called Khmeimim.
MARTIN: So now that Russia is tied down in the war on Ukraine that it started, is there ongoing strategic importance of Syria for Russia and for Putin?
RADCHENKO: Well, what happened - Russia, this time, was simply unable to protect its client. Assad was overthrown. He fled to Russia, and that's, of course, a humiliation. But when people say that Russia has suffered a strategic defeat, I think the jury is still out on this because the Russians, of course, retained their assets in Syria for now. I mean, they have those bases. They have their troops there.
If Russia is forced to withdraw from its bases, from the naval base and the airstrip that they hold in Syria, then this would definitely be strategic defeat and perhaps the end of Putin's ambitions in the Middle East. If, however, they hold onto those assets by, you know, either bribing or threatening the new government, then perhaps, they'll still have another chance.
MARTIN: Do we have any sense of what posture the rebels have toward Putin? I mean, I'm thinking about the fact that he has always backed Bashar al-Assad, as you've just described, who jailed political opponents, who used sarin gas on civilians. Now he's given him asylum. Do we have any sense of whether Putin has been in communication with these rebel groups or what their conversations have been like?
RADCHENKO: So there have - there clearly has been something going on behind the scenes. Now, up to Bashar al-Assad's overthrow, Russia referred to the rebel groups as terrorists. In fact, just a few days ago, they helped the Syrian regime attack the rebel groups with airstrikes. However, just as soon as Assad was overthrown, the Russians changed their rhetoric and now just refer to them as armed Syrian opposition. They're clearly hoping to build bridges to the new leadership.
And of course, Putin doesn't have any moral scruples. He can make deals with anybody. At the moment, he's very weak, because as you said, his - all of his energies are concentrated on Ukraine. So he will probably be willing to make as many concessions to the new Syrian government as they require of him, as long as the Russians are allowed to stay in Syria. Of course, he'll want to stay.
MARTIN: And what about that? Do we have any sense of what posture the rebels have toward Russia and toward Putin, especially regarding those two military bases that you just told us about?
RADCHENKO: Well, there was a report on the Russian media. I don't know how reliable that is. You know, Russian media doesn't tend to be reliable. But apparently the Russian media in Syria reached out to representatives of the new government and they said that they would keep those agreements with Russia that, quote-unquote, "that serve Syria's interests." So that - you know, as I said, the jury is still out.
If Russia is kicked out from Syria, well, that will be the end of Putin's ambitions and Putin's so-called greatness, because that's, of course - you know, his claims to greatness and global relevance rested in part on Russia's presence in the Middle East.
MARTIN: As briefly as you can, what about other Arab countries, now that Putin's biggest ally in the region has been deposed?
RADCHENKO: Well, you know, Putin had - I guess he was seen as fairly powerful by many other regional players because he was able to protect Assad. But now Assad has been overthrown, and that shows Putin's weakness. I think many Arab states will understand this now.
MARTIN: Sergey Radchenko is a professor of history at Johns Hopkins School - at Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, Italy. Professor Radchenko, thank you so much for sharing these insights with us.
RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me on the show. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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