SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
By many measures, California is a shining success story. On its own, it boasts the world's fifth-largest economy. It's one of the richest states in the U.S., with one of the country's highest per capita incomes. And California is also a place where Hollywood and Silicon Valley have set a standard for the U.S. and created a mythical, romantic version of the state that looms over pop culture. But in recent years, it is a story that has been told of one as a state in decline. And according to that narrative, the most populous state is overregulated and too expensive to live in, and so much so, according to some, that people are fleeing it in droves. But how true is that story? To answer, I am joined now by Tessa McLean, the California editor at the online publication SFGATE. She dug into this narrative - not just the current one, but previous times that everybody has been talking about California failing. Welcome to ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
TESSA MCLEAN: Thanks for having me.
DETROW: Let's just start with the now - how dire is it? Is the California dream over? Are we packing it up?
MCLEAN: (Laughter) No, the California dream is not quite over yet, though many would say it is dying. The population in the last three years has declined, but it's never declined more than 1%. Each year since 2021, it's declined by a smaller and smaller number, and in 2023, it only declined 0.09%, according to figures from the State Department of Finance. So growth is simply slowing. It has not fully declined.
DETROW: But this led you to take a broader look because, you know, I covered California politics for a couple of years, and I heard this at the time I was there, and it seems like such a constant. This state is too expensive. It's overregulated. It's killing itself, and people are leaving in droves. And yet, the population - big-picture - continues to go up, the economy continues to grow. Why did you want to take a look back at these previous moments of doom and gloom? What was interesting about it to you?
MCLEAN: I write a lot about the movement of Californians, whether that's leaving the state entirely for a different state like Texas or Montana or whether they're moving around within the state itself. So I really wanted to take a look at the population data and see how big any decline has been in recent years and find out if this was a new phenomenon or if this had in fact been happening for years.
DETROW: Yeah.
MCLEAN: And leading up to the most recent election, it felt like California was in the spotlight more than ever. Kamala Harris was born in the Bay Area. She started her career in California, and that fact was often used against her. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is boasting about how Elon Musk left California for Texas. And Governor Gavin Newsom is sparring with the governors of Texas and Florida, and these conversations are making the national news. I wanted to take a step back and examine America's obsession with California failing.
DETROW: To be clear, though, you're not saying that some of the real problems that are being flagged, like the high cost of living, the cost of housing, in particular, aren't real. It's just that they may be overblown in terms of leading people to flee the state in droves?
MCLEAN: Absolutely. California is an expensive place to live. There's no doubt about it. And that high housing costs and all the cost of living expenses that come along with that are a big reason - the main reason, mainly - why people leave. There's been a lot more migration within the state itself, especially since the pandemic. You know, people might be leaving large coastal metros like San Francisco or Los Angeles for places like the Inland Empire or Sacramento, more so than are leaving the state itself.
DETROW: Why do you think then there's such an impulse over the years - and you're talking about the dot-com bust, you're talking about earlier periods in the 20th century. Why do you think there's such an interest in declaring the death of California?
MCLEAN: California has always been a prosperous place. It's a place that people look to, to go find wealth and success. People have been migrating out to California, looking for the California dream since the Gold Rush. And so I think that idea of the California dream is really important for people, and it really draws people out there.
DETROW: Were there any interesting parallels that you picked up on when you compared these moments?
MCLEAN: Yeah. I mean, the parallels is that the reasons that people are leaving are almost always the same. It's high housing costs. It's traffic. It's overpopulated cities, people just being fed up with the politics of the state. Those reasons never really changed, whether it's 1989 or 2023.
DETROW: That's Tessa McLean, the California editor at SFGATE. Her piece, "America's Obsession With California Failing," is at sfgate.com. Thanks so much for talking to us.
MCLEAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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