AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
We're joined now by senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Good morning, Mara.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Good morning, Ayesha.
RASCOE: So we just heard the latest about this very tenuous ceasefire that the U.S. helped negotiate. Do we know how the incoming Trump administration will handle things if the ceasefire breaks?
LIASSON: No, we don't. We do know that Trump told NBC News' Kristen Welker that if the U.S., quote, "is respected," that the ceasefire will hold, and if the U.S. is disrespected, he said, quote, "all hell will break out." Now, he's made that threat before. A couple of weeks back, he said all hell will break out in the Middle East if the hostages aren't released by the time he gets into office. Well, even if this deal does hold, not all of the hostages are going to be released, only about 33 of them. So we don't know what he means by all hell will break out, and it's hard to imagine that the U.S. or Israel will do something in Gaza that they haven't already done.
Gaza, as you just heard, is reduced to rubble. And secondly, he sent a mixed message to Netanyahu. In that interview, he said he would tell Netanyahu to, quote, "keep doing what has to be done." So on the one hand, he pressured Netanyahu into taking the deal that he knew Netanyahu didn't want to take. The ceasefire deal was designed and crafted by the Biden administration, and it's been on the table for several months. So it's confusing. We don't know exactly what Trump means.
RASCOE: Now, I mean, tomorrow is the inauguration. This will be the second Trump administration. We know that his team is much more prepared this time around, but we also know - we both covered the first Trump administration - that Trump doesn't often stick to the script. He tweets things out or issue edicts without the buy-in of his staff. How do you think that plays out this time around?
LIASSON: I think this time around, there will be much less pushback, if any, from his staff. These are people who are hand-picked for their fealty to him, in some cases, potentially their fealty to him over their loyalty to the Constitution, at least for some of the things he said he'd do, like using the military against civilian protesters. But the constraints on him this time around will come from the markets, the Dow Jones average, public opinion, not his staff. And then the other question is, can he make good on some of the promises he made because of things beyond his control? Some things need congressional approval or buy-in from other countries.
For instance, he said he'd bring the prices of groceries down on Day 1. Now, he says it's hard to bring prices down. He said he'd cut energy bills for air conditioning and heating in half in 12 months. Well, oil prices are set globally, not by the U.S. president. And he said he'd end the Russian invasion of Ukraine within 24 hours of being in office. Now he's walked that one back, too, saying the war is, quote, "much more complicated."
RASCOE: Well, a big issue in the first administration was all the infighting in the White House, different people trying to get Trump's attention. We've seen a little bit of this in the debate over H-1B visas. Do you think we will see those same sorts of power struggles in this new administration, and if so, what might be the impact?
LIASSON: Yeah, I do think we will. The first Trump administration was famously at odds with itself and driven by internal descent. Maybe that will be less this time. But when it comes to the tech billionaires like Elon Musk, who's now Donald Trump's biggest funder and supporter, and his company gets the highest amount of government contracts, you're going to see conflicts, and you're seeing them over the H-1B visas. You know, the people in the MAGA base, personified by someone like Steve Bannon, thinks that H-1B visas are basically indentured servitude for foreign workers to come here and take away jobs from Americans. Musk and other Silicon Valley leaders want H-1B visas. And Elon Musk is going to push back against Trump, and Trump will have to resolve this conflict.
RASCOE: So, I mean, Trump has always seemed to be campaigning for reelection in his first term. But this time, he doesn't have another race ahead of him. How is that going to play out for Trump and his inner circle?
LIASSON: I think that that is just one less constraint. He doesn't have to run for office. He does care about public opinion, of course, and he cares about the markets. He cares about whether he can dominate the news cycle, but he doesn't have to worry about being reelected, and I think that will really liberate him.
RASCOE: What are you looking for in this first week of the new administration in terms of immediate priorities?
LIASSON: What I'm going to be watching for are things that will transform or undermine democratic institutions and change America's role in the world. Does he plan on handing Ukraine to Vladimir Putin on a silver platter? How many of the January 6 rioters will he pardon, and will any of them be convicted of violent crimes? Will he fire tens of thousands of civil servants and replace them with political appointees? You know, he has been very, very specific. He's made a lot of promises. And I think the big question is, how many of them will be - will he be able to fulfill? How many of them will he not be able to fulfill? And more importantly, will the American people care if he doesn't?
RASCOE: So, I mean, it sounds like, Mara, as we heard a lot in the first administration, we'll see what happens and also...
LIASSON: Right.
RASCOE: ...Buckle up.
LIASSON: That's right - TBD.
RASCOE: That's NPR's Mara Liasson. Thank you, Mara.
LIASSON: You're welcome.
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