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President Trump signed an executive order to reimpose maximum pressure on Iran. He told reporters he was, quote, "torn" about signing this, said he's hopefully won't have to use it much. Trump's return to the White House comes after Iran suffered a series of setbacks, which are giving many anti-government activists in Iran hope. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam reports.
JACKIE NORTHAM, BYLINE: It has been a tough few months for Iran's hard-line regime. Israel heavily degraded two important proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas. It also assassinated senior Iranian military officials and pounded Iran's air defenses. Then came the fall of Syria's regime under President Bashar al-Assad.
HOLLY DAGRES: The Islamic republic has lost one of its biggest allies in the region, one that it's propped up for more than a decade.
NORTHAM: Holly Dagres is an Iran specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East policy and closely charts social media in the Persian nation.
DAGRES: This has really been dire for the Islamic republic's foreign policy in the region.
NORTHAM: She says, there's been a distinct mood change among people posting on social media since Assad's surprisingly quick fall from power.
DAGRES: They suddenly see this collapse of a regime that the Islamic republic had propped up. It kind of gave them a sense that there is this possibility, there is this chance that this could also happen at home, that this regime could be toppled.
NORTHAM: This wave of optimism amongst opponents has not escaped Iran's leadership. Iran's 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently warned against protests. And tens of thousands of heavily armed paramilitary fighters paraded through Tehran - in part, to send a signal to any homegrown dissent.
UNIDENTIFIED CROWD: (Chanting in Farsi).
NORTHAM: There have already been ongoing protests for months over the economy, corruption and the like. That's helped spark a new wave of crackdowns in the wake of Assad's fall from power, says one 38-year-old activist living in Tehran. She asked that we not use her name because she fears retribution from the government.
UNIDENTIFIED ACTIVIST: (Through interpreter) Whenever Iran's regime is defeated, they just get more merciless and violent with activists inside the country. They have started a new way with crackdowns and arresting social activists.
NORTHAM: Mojtaba (ph) is a 37-year-old former political prisoner, who asked that we not use his last name for fear of government reprisal. He says that security crackdowns have made it hard to coordinate larger protests.
MOJTABA: (Through interpreter) There's no organized opposition inside, despite the fact that a majority of the population in the country are protesters and against this regime.
NORTHAM: What's fueling hope this time is President Trump returning to the White House. During his first term, Trump pulled the U.S. out of Iran's nuclear accord and imposed tough sanctions in a bid to weaken the government.
Nima (ph), a 44-year-old, who also asked that we not use his full name out of fear of the regime, says President Joe Biden took a different approach and was too soft on Iran.
NIMA: (Through interpreter) Biden's administration weakened a lot of the sanctions. That allowed Iran to sell its oil and give the regime more freedom and flexibility.
NORTHAM: Nima hopes Trump will enforce his sanctions more stringently, leading to the collapse of the regime.
NIMA: (Through interpreter) Mr. Trump has made it clear that he is not pursuing regime change in Iran directly. But there's no doubt that he's going to weaken the current Iranian regime to a great extent using economic sanctions.
NORTHAM: Trump has indicated he will get tough with Iran, but has also left the door open to diplomacy. The Washington Institute's Dagres says this will be a consequential few years for Iran.
DAGRES: Not just because there's a Trump administration, but also because the economy's in shambles. Their resistance axis has crumbled. There's historically high anti-regime sentiment, and presumably, there will be a supreme leader transition at some point.
NORTHAM: All of which could spark regime change in Iran or force the government to crack down harder on dissent.
Jackie Northam, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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