Vermont’s tourism industry is bracing for a rough summer as the state confronts mounting evidence that Canadian visitors are canceling travel to the United States.
At Jay Peak Resort, where Canadians account for 50% of top-line revenue, early sales for next winter’s season passes are down by 80% among customers that live north of the border, according to Steve Wright, president and general manager.
Golf and hockey rink reservations for the upcoming summer are down dramatically as well, Wright told lawmakers recently. And as the resort prepares to close out its most financially successful fiscal year ever, he said, it’s now contending with “the threat to business via our federal administration’s conscious self-immolation of our relationship with Canada.”
Businesses that survived a global pandemic and two summers of devastating floods now face “economic pain” related to a potential new disaster, according to Commissioner of Tourism Heather Pelham.
“Today there is a new threat we must face together amid the global trade war unfolding around us and the destabilizing rhetoric that threatens our closest friends and neighbors,” Pelham told lawmakers recently.
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The 750,000 Canadians that visited Vermont last year account for 5% of tourist traffic statewide and more than 30% of visits in the state’s northernmost counties. Officials in Canada and Vermont are seeing indicators that those numbers could drop steeply in the months ahead.
You have to understand that with the current environment, the volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs, people in Canada and Quebec are scared.René Sylvestre, Quebec delegate to New England
René Sylvestre, the Quebec delegate to New England, said statistics collected by government agencies in Canada show that over the past three months, the number of Canadians returning from road trips to the U.S. is down by 25% over the same period last year. According to Air Canada, Sylvestre said, the number of bookings to the U.S. over the next six months is expected to drop by 10%.
“These examples should not be interpreted as a resentment toward American people,” Sylvestre said. “But you have to understand that with the current environment, the volatility, and the uncertainty around tariffs, people in Canada and Quebec are scared.”
Wright said he’s called more than half the Canadian customers who didn’t repurchase season passes for next year. He said they almost all offered the same reasoning.
“It is not because of the taxes. It is not because of a difficult currency. It is not because of an impossible border crossing situation with reduced hours,” he said. “It is because of the challenge to their sovereignty by our administration.”
Abigail Long, executive director of Kingdom Trails Association in East Burke, said her organization has heard similar stories. The mountain biking destination’s bilingual trail signs reflect that 30% of its visitors hail from Quebec.
“And that’s why it’s been heartbreaking the past two months to hear consistently from our Canadian trail users, through emails and phone calls daily, that they love Kingdom Trails, but they will not be visiting until our political climate has shifted,” Long said. “They’ve even gone so far as to invite Vermont to be the 11th province.”
Vermont’s $4 billion tourism industry accounts for nearly 10% of the state’s gross domestic product and is a key source of revenue even for non-tourism businesses. Red Hen Baking Company in Middlesex, which employs about 65 employees, derives most of its revenue from the sale of bread, pastries and other products.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that if we don’t have the tourist business, we don’t have a business.Randy George, Red Hen Baking Company
Red Hen owner Randy George told lawmakers that local sales anchor the company's financials. But he said they rely on a tourism-induced bump, starting in summer, to generate the sales needed to operate in the black.
“It’s not an exaggeration to say that if we don’t have the tourist business, we don’t have a business,” George said.
Long said Kingdom Trails penned a letter to Canadian citizens recently, saying they “cherish” their relationship and that Canadians will always be welcome.
“My hope,” Long said, “is that the state of Vermont can amplify that message.”
