Meteorologists have generally scoffed at the almanac's methodology.
The 2016 edition of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which released its seasonal forecast this week, predicts an unusually harsh winter for the northeast. But a Connecticut meteorologist called the almanac an unreliable source, and said science doesn't really allow for fine-tuned predictions so far in the future.
The forecast the almanac used is based on a top-secret formula devised by the almanac’s founder in 1792. It's since been revised to include technological and scientific calculations.
The almanac’s website says it employs three disciplines to to make long-term predictions: the study of sunspots, the study of prevailing weather patterns, and the study of the atmosphere. But meteorologists have generally scoffed at the almanac's methodology, which they say are outdated and unscientific.
NBC Connecticut Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan said the almanac’s prediction is as reliable as “if you were to shake a Magic 8 Ball and ask it if it’s going to snow on Christmas.”
Hanrahan said it’s the almanac’s veiled methodology and lack of statistical analysis that makes it an unreliable source.
“They say that their methods are a close-guarded secret. That’s not the way scientific discourse takes place,” he said.
Meanwhile, meteorologists say the upcoming winter might actually be a bit milder than last year’s. Hanrahan said that long-term weather analysts are pointing to this year’s massive El Niño as the potential cause.
“The biggest thing for the upcoming winter is that there’s a huge El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, and that tends to drive the entire weather pattern in the United States,” Hanrahan said.
Hanrahan said there’s really no way to accurately predict weather this far out, especially for specific weeks in the coming winter.
“One thing we can say with a fair amount of certainty: February was the coldest month on record in the Hartford area, I think we can be fairly certain that this coming February will not be as cold,” Hanrahan said.
The big question, Hanrahan said, is snowfall. “All it takes is one big snowstorm to blow out the whole winter and give you average or above average snow,” he said.
The Boston snow pile is officially melted today July 14, 2015 pic.twitter.com/nNf3YOIJwV
— Mass Problems (@ProblemsMa) July 14, 2015
New Englanders might remember that it was only a month ago that the last of a giant snow pile in Boston melted.
