The 2024 presidential election cycle has seen its share of headlines in recent months:
- A party feverishly trying to convince an incumbent president not to run for re-election.
- A candidate getting shot at during an apparent assassination attempt.
- The sitting president bowing out of the race and immediately endorsing his vice president to replace him.
- A candidate with a real chance of becoming America’s first African-American, Asian-American, female President.
“This has been unprecedented,” said Eastern Connecticut State University Presidential historian Thomas Balcerski.
Balcerski said adding to the list of unprecedented events is the public’s reaction to former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance.
“We've seen a party who brought about a vice presidential nominee that has proven historically unpopular and has actually fallen in its approval ratings more than any other candidate,” he said.
On top of that Balcerski said Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination is notable, because we now have “a Democratic National Committee with a candidate who's received no votes in the primary.”
So, what can history teach us about how this most unique Presidential election season will play out? According to Balcerski, history says no matter what the polls say today, a surprise is probably coming.
“We've been talking as if the election is somehow decided in June or July and August. It's not,” Balcerski said. “It's decided in those final months of October and November, and famously or infamously, we always seem to have something in those last couple of weeks, which we now call the ‘October surprise,’ that could change the entire course of the race.”
The history of the ‘October Surprise’
An “October Surprise” is now defined as ”an unexpected political event or revelation in the month before a presidential election, especially one that seems intended to influence the outcome,” according to The Oxford English Dictionary
But Balcerski says that is only the most recent definition.
“It didn't actually have a political meaning,” Balcerski said. “It's an interesting term that actually comes out of advertising, when department stores would give a sale. We now might call it more like Black Friday.”
A little more than four decades ago, Balcerski said the term’s evolution into a political phenomena began in earnest.
“It really took on historical or political meaning in 1980, when President Reagan's campaign manager was fired right in the eve of the election, and then he ended up beating President Carter anyway,” Balcerski said. “That was considered the first ‘October Surprise.’”
October Surprises have been numerous since Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run.
“In 2016, it would seem the ‘October Surprise’ may have peaked with, in that case, news that came out against candidate Donald Trump about some of his conduct and behavior in 2005 this is the famous entertainment Hollywood Video,” Balcerski said.
Then came a second surprise.
“We also saw on that same week, but what an incredible week it was, that the FBI had reopened an investigation into Hillary Clinton's staff and use of a private email server,” he said.
In 2020, a major October Surprise was Trump getting sick with COVID-19, as well as Hunter Biden’s laptop. The New York Post published a story in mid-October 2020 detailing documents found on the device.
“And so here we are now, in 2024 with ‘anything can happen,’” Balcerski said. “I wouldn't be surprised if it does.”
