Trump would win if election were held today, Fairfield University professor predicts

Gayle Alberda, a political science professor at Fairfield University, said Vice President Kamala Harris would likely lose if the presidential election were held now.

“I do think Trump would win it right now by a slim margin, like I'm talking five electoral vote differences,” Alberda said.

Alberda made her prediction on Wednesday evening during a moderated discussion with News 12 anchor Mark Sudol.

Harris is widely expected to win Connecticut, based on previous presidential election results and voting trends. Alberda said Harris’ campaign is struggling on a national level to attract more voters from several groups, such as young African American men and Arab Americans.

Yet she cautioned the presidential election campaign, which has seen two separate assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, could easily go in a different direction within the next two weeks.

“The goal for her is to make sure people don't vote third party, and that they don't stay home, right? If those two things don't happen, she's going to win,” Alberda said.

Alberda said Harris needs to win several swing states including Pennsylvania and Michigan where she either barely edges out Trump, or trails him in the polls, according to a recent swing state poll by Quinnipiac University. 

The Connecticut Democratic Party, which has volunteers actively canvassing for Harris in several swing states and whose members will soon host a fundraiser with Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz, disagrees.

Nancy DiNardo, chair of Connecticut’s Democratic party, pushed back on Alberda’s prediction.

“Contrary to the professor’s claims, we are not just optimistic, but confident that when we get out the vote, we win,” DiNardo said.

Republican voters, such as Brenda Kupchick, who was the town of Fairfield’s First Selectman before being defeated last year by Democrat Bill Gerber, said Alberda’s prediction is not a surprise, even if they concede Harris is all but assured to win Connecticut.

“It's a blue state. It's going to stay that way as far as the presidential goes,” Kupchick said.

DiNardo said Connecticut Democrats are seeing enthusiasm for Harris in those states.

“Kamala Harris became the candidate 89 days ago, and is running one of the smartest presidential campaigns in recent memory,” DiNardo said. “She’s competitive, or polling ahead of Donald Trump in swing states across the country, and the campaign is overwhelmed with donations and volunteers working to get out the vote.”